The epidemiological traffic light and its impact on the Mexican economy

The “Epidemiological Traffic Light” and its Impact on the Mexican Economy

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The Mexican Ministry of Health detailed its current “epidemiological traffic light”, which shows the health situation in the different states of the country. From 26 July to 8 August, only three states are at low risk (green), while 15 are at medium risk (yellow), 13 are at high risk (orange) and only one is at maximum risk (red).

Considering this situation and its potential negative impact on the economy, according to El Financiero, Ernesto O’Farrill, president of Grupo Bursamétrica, said that Mexico’s growth projection for 2021 is 6.8%, but could be slightly reduced.

“Our forecast is 6.8%, and we do believe that growth could be reduced by half a point with this third wave; the longer the government takes and the stronger the contagion becomes, when measures have to be taken they will have to be more drastic and growth could be affected more,” the specialist said.

For his part, Carlos González, director of analysis at Grupo Financiero Monex, explained that the 6% consensus is somewhat optimistic, bearing in mind that the pandemic is not yet over, so he estimates a 5.5% economic recovery.

What is important in the “traffic light” is not the number of states in negative conditions, but their share of gross domestic product.

In total, those in good health conditions only contribute around 6.46 per cent, while those at high risk account for around 56.08 per cent, a more than significant figure. Given this inequality, Mexico’s economic future in the short term will depend largely on what the Ministry of Health decides.

 

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